Russia marks Victory Day under shadow of Ukraine setbacks

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech during the Victory Day military parade at Red Square in central Moscow on May 9, 2023. Russia celebrates the 78th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany during World War II. (Photo by Gavriil GRIGOROV / SPUTNIK / AFP)

(AFP) - President Vladimir Putin is set to preside Tuesday over Victory Day celebrations overshadowed by Russia's battlefield failures in Ukraine, confrontation with the West and fear of new attacks at home.

But in a major coup for the Kremlin, at least six post-Soviet leaders including the prime minister of Armenia and the president of Kazakhstan are expected to attend the military parade that fetes the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945.

Putin, who has become the target of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant, is expected to address thousands of troops standing at attention in Moscow's Red Square amid ramped-up security.

However, after 14 months of fighting in Ukraine, Russia has little to show for its military campaign, with troops failing to take control of the eastern town of Bakhmut, its military leadership riven by conflict and Kyiv preparing to go on the offensive.

Political analyst Arkady Dubnov said that "for the first time in many years" Putin will be surrounded at a Victory Day parade by a number of post-Soviet leaders.

"Despite the serious weakening of its global positions after February 24, 2022, Russia remains to a certain extent the metropolis of a former empire whose actions have to be taken into account," Dubnov said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that "all necessary measures" were being taken to ensure the safety of the leaders.

In the run-up to the festivities, Russia has witnessed numerous incidents, including explosions derailing trains, fires, a drone attack on the Kremlin and a bombing attack that wounded a fiercely pro-Kremlin writer, Zakhar Prilepin.

More than two dozen cities and towns -- near the Ukraine border, but also in more distant Russian regions -- have cancelled plans to stage their own military parades over security concerns.

The Kremlin has, however, said that the Red Square parade, which is seen as bolstering Putin's legitimacy, will take place.

Since coming to power in 2000, Putin has stoked patriotic fervour around the 1945 Soviet victory over the Nazis, boosting his standing as the heir of Soviet power.

The Kremlin has also used the memory of the Soviet war effort to justify its offensive in Ukraine, claiming it is fighting "fascists" supported by the West.

Authorities have scrapped plans to hold so-called "Immortal Regiment" marches in which people carry photos of veterans or family members who died in World War II.

While officials said the events would not take place due to security concerns, Kremlin critics say many Russians could have brought photos of those who died fighting in Ukraine, highlighting the scale of Moscow's losses.

- Problems at the front -

Ahead of the parade, Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, issued a series of blistering, profanity-laced videos, blaming Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov for withholding ammunition amid talk of infighting and rivalries.

The Institute for the Study of War has pointed to "chain of command problems" for the Russian army in Ukraine that cast doubt on Moscow's ability to "coordinate a coherent theatre-wide defensive campaign".

Still, it has been able to launch wave after wave of aerial attacks across Ukrainian territory, including on Monday night and into Tuesday morning.

The commander-in-chief of Ukraine's military, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said in a statement that out of 25 cruise missiles launched by Russia overnight, 23 were shot down.

Regional military authorities for Kyiv said around 15 incoming missiles had been shot down around the city, adding that "there were no casualties or serious damage due to falling debris".

Earlier on Monday, Ukraine had commemorated the end of World War II together with Europe, with President Volodymyr Zelensky vowing that Russian forces would be defeated just as Nazi Germany was beaten in 1945.

The Ukrainian leader said the Kremlin was responsible for "aggression and annexation, occupation and deportation", as well as "mass murder and torture".

Zelensky said he had submitted a bill to parliament to formally commemorate World War II in Ukraine on May 8. For years the anniversary was marked on May 9, as it was in Russia and other ex-Soviet countries.

Ukraine will also mark a separate Europe Day on May 9, which promotes peace and unity on the continent, he said.

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Kyiv on Tuesday to mark the occasion, and to meet with Zelensky and work on Ukraine's quest for eventual EU membership, a reporter on her overnight train said.

© Agence France-Presse